Today’s Supreme Court judgment should have been a lifeline for the African Democratic Congress. Instead, it was a trap door. And if the big names now flocking to the ADC coalition led by David Mark cannot see it, then one must ask: is there any wise politician in ADC?
The Supreme Court, in its ruling today, did not hand victory to David Mark’s faction of the ADC. It did something far more dangerous.
Today’s ruling was billed as the moment the ADC would finally get legal clarity. For months, the party has been repackaged as the “third force” vehicle for 2027, with David Mark as chairman and Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and other opposition figures touted as its new anchors. The expectation was simple: the Supreme Court would either affirm Mark’s leadership and end the crisis, or reject him and force a reset.
The Court did neither. It refused to hand victory to David Mark’s faction. Instead, it declined jurisdiction on the core leadership dispute and referred the matter back to the lower court for determination. In law, that is called judicial restraint. In politics, that is called a time bomb.
On paper, that looks like a judicial process. In reality, it is a political chokehold.
Because the lower court is not empty. Two men have been waiting there with case files, press conferences, and subsisting claims to the heart of the ADC. The first is Dumebi Kachikwu, the party’s 2023 presidential candidate. He has never recognized the Mark-led NEC and continues to issue statements as the “authentic” leader of the party. The second is Nafiu Bala Gombe, the self-styled “untamed Vice President” of the ADC, who has filed multiple actions challenging every convention and reconciliation meeting since 2022. Both have argued, consistently, that the Mark takeover was illegal. And both now have the Supreme Court’s referral as a fresh tailwind.
This is why today’s judgment did not favour the ADC led by David Mark. It did not invalidate him, but it denied him finality. Without finality, he cannot give INEC a list of candidates that is litigation-proof. He cannot sign coalition MOUs that will survive a challenge. He cannot guarantee that the National Working Committee he inaugurates today will not be dissolved by a lower court tomorrow.
In the Nigeria electoral calendar, uncertainty is a weapon. And that weapon now points at Mark.
The deeper play is obvious when you look at who is being invited into the ADC. Peter Obi needs a platform without the LP drama of 2023. Atiku Abubakar needs a vehicle outside the PDP wards that rejected him. Rabiu Kwankwaso needs a national spread that NNPP could not deliver. The ADC, on paper, solves all three problems. But only if it is legally stable. Today’s judgment makes sure it is not.
This is a means to keep Obi, Atiku, Kwankwaso, and others trapped. Consider the timeline. The lower court will now hear the substantive leadership suit. That court will be asked to choose between the Mark faction, Kachikwu’s claim, and Bala’s faction. Given the history of the case and the reliefs already sought, the outcome is telegraphed: the lower court will likely favour either Dumebi Kachikwu or Nafiu Bala Gombe. It will not favour Mark, because if the Supreme Court had wanted to save Mark, it would have resolved the matter today.
So what happens to the big names if they defect now? They step into a party whose control will shift beneath them. They will spend the 2026 building structures, negotiating alliances, and raising funds, only to discover in a few months that the court has handed the party to Kachikwu or Bala. At that point, any candidate list not signed by the court-recognized chairman is void. Any primary not conducted by the “authentic” NWC is a nullity. The trap is not that they cannot join ADC. The trap is that they cannot leave it once INEC’s timetable starts, because a late exit triggers the constitutional restrictions on defection and nomination.
This is the new face of political containment. You don’t proscribe a party. You lade it with litigation. You don’t disqualify Peter Obi. You let him run on a ticket that a judgment will cancel after the printing of ballot papers has begun. You don’t attack Atiku’s base. You let him build a base in a party that will be forfeited to his opponent in court. You don’t stop Kwankwaso. You let him waste time reconciling a structure that Nafiu Bala Gombe will inherit.
David Mark’s ADC was sold as the coalition of the sensible. After today, it looks like the coalition of the stranded. The Supreme Court did not create peace. It created a queue at the lower court, and Kachikwu and Bala are first in line. They have the earlier suits. They have the older claims. They have the benefit of a Supreme Court that refused to shut the door on them.
So is there any wise politician in ADC? A wise politician does not build on land with a caveat. A wise politician knows that INEC obeys judgments, not communiqués. A wise politician reads the implication of “referred back to lower court” and understands that it means “Mark is not safe yet.” A wise politician would demand an ironclad political settlement with Kachikwu and Bala, signed, filed in court, and adopted as consent judgment, before putting his name on an ADC membership card.
Without that, the only wise move is to walk away. Because if Obi, Atiku, and Kwankwaso proceed under the illusion that today’s judgment was neutral, they will learn in June that it was surgical. The patient was not the ADC. The patient was their 2027 ambition.
And when the lower court rules for Dumebi Kachikwu or Nafiu Bala Gombe, as the logic of today’s referral suggests it will, the ADC will not be a third force. It will be a third grave. The wise will not be buried in it.
Ebenezer Olukayode Ogundele Writes from Ibadan, Oyo state.
ebenezerolukayode01@gmail.com
WARNING: If You Are Not 18+, Don’t Click The Link Below 👇🫣
https://wrathful-piano.com/zBn8jS
Did you want to monetize your website, join MONETAG or ADSKEEPER and start earning
Please don’t forget to “Allow the notification” so you will be the first to get our gist when we publish it.
Drop your comment in the section below, and don’t forget to share the post.
Never Miss A Single News Or Gist, Kindly Join Us On WhatsApp Channel:
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vad8g81Eawdsio6INn3B
Telegram Channel:
https://t.me/gistsmateNG
