The Convener of the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico. ng, Mr Lai Omotola, has projected a closely contested 2027 presidential election, with slim margins separating the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Presenting the group’s third electoral map for November 2026 at a press conference held in Lagos on Thursday, Omotola projected President Bola Tinubu as leading the presidential race, followed by the presidential candidate of the NDC, Peter Obi and the presidential candidate of the ADC, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, with narrow margins between the three contenders.
The projections showed the APC and NDC winning 13 states each, while the ADC would secure 11 states. The APC was projected to win all South-West and North-Central states; the NDC, all South-East and South-South states, Kano State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT); and the ADC, all North-East and North-West states except Kano and Zamfara.
Omotola also forecast voter turnout of 40 per cent, up from 29 per cent in the last general elections, attributing the increase to young voters.
He estimated that about 68 million new voters, predominantly youths, would participate for the first time, with Nigerians aged 18 to 49 playing a dominant role.
Reviewing October’s political developments, Omotola said campaign activities had begun among the APC, ADC and NDC.
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👉 JOIN GISTSMATE WHATSAPP CHANNELHe also highlighted controversy over the preliminary voters’ register released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), saying the controversy had raised concerns about the credibility of the electoral process.
He cited the APC’s inaugural campaign rally in Kaduna, led by Tinubu, as another major development. He also mentioned the debate over fuel subsidy, sparked by Atiku’s proposal for its restoration, and the Federal Government’s subsequent 30-day reduction in petrol prices through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).
Omotola said field reports indicated that opposition parties were facing stiff resistance during their campaigns, while internal disagreements within the APC could also affect the parties’ political fortunes.
He urged political parties, INEC and other stakeholders to work towards peaceful, free and fair elections, saying their credibility would be a defining moment for Nigeria’s democracy and development.
“It will be in the interest of the nation for all stakeholders to ensure that the elections are peaceful, free and fair. This will be a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy, and the country will be a better place for it,” he said.
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