Chances have continued to dim that the much-expected single presidential challenger against incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu being championed by some leaders of opposition could bear fruit before campaigns close on January 14, 2027 for the 2027 presidential ballot. As the coalition leaders move to prevail on former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to support a younger candidate, the former Vice President insists that the surest path to defeating Tinubu is by having a younger candidate behind him, thereby making things near impossible for the coalition, LEO SOBECHI reports.
Out of the 17 political parties that fielded presidential challengers against the incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, eight are being approached to see how they could rally round one candidate to square-up with the incumbent.
Recall that as sooner as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) published the list of presidential candidates and their political parties, the G100 emerged to canvass for an opposition consensus candidate to defeat the incumbent. The coalition of opposition leaders believe that, armed with the legendary power of incumbency, federal might, college of 35 state governors and a huge financial war chest, defeating the incumbent will not be a walk in the park.
Further, in a bid to accentuate the postulations of the G100, the Movement for Credible Elections (MCE), joined in the effort to ensure that the field for the 2027 presidential contest was not crowded with opposition contenders, some of whom could not boast of more than a federal constituency-size population of support across the federation.
Although it remains doubtful that all eight could subscribe to the shortlisting of presidential candidates, the following political parties have been penciled for contact and mobilization by the MCE: African Democratic Congress (ADC), Allied People’s Movement (APM), Accord Party, African Action Congress (AAC) National Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Young Progressive Party (YPP).
While informing journalists that the MCE plans to meet with the candidates for a closed-door conversation, the movement’s media coordinator, James Ezema, explained that the rationale for the closed-door engagements “is to prevent sabotage from political mercenaries and jobbers opposed to the initiative.”
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👉 JOIN WHATSAPP CHANNELHe maintained these unnamed saboteurs are “determined to frustrate the negotiations and horse-trading amongst the shortlisted presidential candidates.” MCE argued that Nigeria cannot afford another opposition arrangement, where political actors agree on the need for a united front, only to retract “when it becomes necessary to determine the arrowhead and rallying point of that electoral alliance.”
Although MCE expressed optimism that the anticipated opposition coalition process would succeed, it discovered that the feasibility of the proposition will not depend on the popularity of individual aspirants to a large extent. The group noted that factors such as credibility, transparency and fairness, as well as due process and level playing field through which the consensus presidential candidate is chosen, are central to its execution.
What the G100 and MCE are doing has some roots in history. In the lead-up to the 2011 presidential election cycle, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and few northern political leaders in the PDP wanted to stop President Goodluck Jonathan from continuing in office as substantive President.
Jonathan had mounted the saddle barely one year earlier through the instrument of a doctrine of necessity after President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua died midway into the first term of the Presidency he won with Jonathan as running mate in 2007.
But, insistent that it was the turn of the north to retain the Presidency, the Northern Political Leaders Forum argued that having served out the remaining period of Yar’Adua’s first term, a person from the north should be supported to serve out what could have been the deceased President’s second term.
So, in a bid to ensure that a plethora of northern presidential aspirants did not split the ballot from northern delegates to the anticipated PDP presidential primary and special convention, the leaders constituted the Northern Political Leaders Consensus Committee.
The Committee, chaired by a former Minister of Finance, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, had Abdulkadir Sabo Bello as its secretary, and was mandated with the responsibility of selecting a consensus candidate that could run as “Northern PDP Candidate” during the 2010 presidential primary.
In a statement on November 21, 2010, the Consensus Committee, while announcing Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as its choice, made some important remarks, which some members of the MCE are clutching unto in their belief that the search for a consensus opposition contender against Tinubu would not succeed.
Part of the four-paragraph statement by the Ciroma Committee read: “We are glad and proud that we have finally arrived at this outcome after several weeks of hard work and wide consultations. We are proud, because of the unusual honour and extraordinary privilege given us by the four gentlemen, who placed their political destinies in our hands. We are humbled by the strength of their faith. We appreciate their humility and cooperation. We have been reassured by all of them that they will work together to enable Atiku Abubakar clinch their party’s ticket in the presidential primaries.
“We thank all Nigerians, supporters and critics alike for their views over these past several weeks.
While we note these views and respect each one of them, we insist that no individual, organization or society dreaming of success and greatness can achieve these dreams without respect for others and honouring agreements voluntarily entered into. This is especially so, where these agreements have been transformed into a binding document, a constitution, which governs the conduct of those who subscribe to it.”
There are many dissimilarities between the NPLCC and what G100 and MCE are trying to do for next year’s presidential ballot. For instance, unlike in 2010 when the Northern Leaders settled for Atiku as the consensus northern challenger against President Goodluck Jonathan, many leading politicians that The Guardian spoke to, said the crucial issue borders on many political parties.
They contended that a lot of consultations are needed to convince party leaders and their candidates to subscribe to a consensus or compromise presidential candidate for the January 16, 2027 ballot.
Again, apart from the fact that the then Ciroma Committee was charged with locating a single northern challenger against incumbent President, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, the search for a consensus choice was among members of the same Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While it was easy for the Ciroma Committee to settle for the former Vice President ahead of General Ibrahim Babangida, Dr Bukola Saraki, retired General Aliyu Mohammed (Gusau).
Contentious Calculations
In its recent statement, MCE disclosed that it would conclude its assignment within two weeks and put forward a common candidate. But, the various factors that MCE formulated to guide it towards the intended end put a big hole on its optimism.
According to the statement, MCE disclosed that the process of selecting the consensus presidential candidate would “be based on credibility, transparency, fairness, due process and a level playing field.” Unlike the Ciroma Committee, the participating candidates and political parties are yet to agree on the modalities and terms of endorsement.
Also, it disclosed certain criteria for evaluating the aspirants, including “national acceptability, competence, integrity, leadership profile, political electability, policy orientation, commitment to democratic institutions, capacity to unite the country and ability to work with diverse social interests.”
Going by the political parties identified by MCE, the following presidential candidates are expected to be visited, interacted with and evaluated: Atiku Abubakar, (ADC); Peter Obi, (NDC); Adewole Adebayo, (SDP); Seyi Makinde, APM); Donald Duke, (PRP); Sandy Onor, PDP); Peter Agada, (YPP) and Omoyele Sowore, (AAC).
From the public utterances of the targeted contenders, while it is easy for the urbane Donald Duke and leaders of his party, PRP, to agree to support a compromise candidate, how far could Prof Pat Utomi and his Political Commission go to convince such candidates as Onor (PDP) and Sowore (AAC) to stand down?
Then, among the front row candidates, despite the behind the scene suggestions for Atiku to exit the 2027 presidential race, at least to honour the presidential power rotational principle that undulates the Presidency between the North and South, the former Vice President describes such ideas as outlandish.
Alternatively, the former Vice President is flying the kite of a possible repeat of the 2019 presidential ballot, which paired him up with the current NDC presidential hopeful, Obi. Feelers from the camp of the 2010 consensus Northern Presidential Candidate, reveal that it was partly in the belief that his ADC platform could ultimately be the rallying party for the opposition coalition that he reluctantly agreed to having Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate.
Yet, as the former Vice President holds unto his dream of becoming president, five younger presidential runners-Obi, Makinde, Duke, Adebayo and Sowore-do not betray any pretensions about a possible support for him (Atiku), even as consensus option.
Speaking when he attended the unveiling of the APM’s Presidential Campaign Office in Abuja, the NDC presidential candidate, Obi, regretted that all the people leading the country after its independence remain those born before both the Lyttleton and Independence Constitution.
On his part, the APM presidential standard bearer, Makinde, disclosed that his presidential ambition was predicated on the need to build a new movement to rescue the country from poor governance.
While Prince Adebayo of SDP maintains that Nigerians are yearning for a new crop of credible leaders, Sowore maintains that all those who contributed to the poverty and deprivation of Nigerians should be rejected at the polls.
Adding his voice to echo the odds against the former Vice President, a former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani, urged that the 2027 presidential poll be between just two Southern candidates, including the incumbent and Mr Peter Obi.
Although supporters of the former Vice President dismissed his suggestions, Sani remarked that Nigerians have bought into the power rotation scheme between the North and South. In the post on his X (formerly Twitter) handle, the Kaduna State-born federal lawmaker, stated: “Northern candidates such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar should allow the South to complete its eight-year tenure before seeking the presidency.
“The 2027 political contest should be between Tinubu, Peter Obi, Sowore, Makinde, Adebayo, Duke and other Southern Candidates. The South should complete its eight year. It’s not constitutional, but it’s equitable. We should not bury our heads in the sand and deny the realities and complexities of our history.”
“North should have an unchallengeable right in 2031…those who say there shouldn’t be respect for the principle of Rotation of power in 2027, should know that it will not be respected in 2031.”
Although Senator Sani did not allude to the Ciroma Committee statement in 2010 that “no individual, organisation or society dreaming of success and greatness can achieve these dreams without respect for others and honouring agreements voluntarily entered into,” the refrain within the opposition coalition is that only support for a Southern candidate would be acceptable.
As the Prof. Utomi-led Political Commission of the MCE plans to engage the presidential candidates in closed-door conversations, it is not known yet, whether the issue of zoning will be on the table during the talks, particularly with Atiku, who is about the only Northern candidate with electoral heft on the ballot.
However, just as the MCE maintains that “Nigerian people deserve more than a coalition of political personalities (and) deserve a coalition of ideas, competence, values and a coherent ideological programme for national salvation,” the task of shrinking the number of candidates to just one contender for the sake of defeating incumbent, presents as a huge task.
The former Vice President believes that all pointers are positive that being the only candidate from the North he would harvest the entire northern ballot to win. Consequently, convincing him or the NDC presidential hopeful, Obi, to quit the race could be Nigeria’s equivalent of waiting for Godot.
Credit: The Guardian
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