Nigerians may soon experience an increase in the price of bread as rising global wheat costs continue to put pressure on the country’s food supply chain.
The price of Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, a major ingredient used in bread production, has surged to its highest level in nearly two years.
This increase is largely driven by severe drought conditions in the United States Great Plains, a key wheat-producing region, as well as a decline in wheat planting by American farmers who are shifting to more profitable crops like corn and soybeans.
Nigeria, which imports over 95% of its wheat, is particularly vulnerable to these global price fluctuations. With national demand projected to reach a record 7.2 million tons this year, any increase in international wheat prices quickly translates to higher costs for local millers and bakers.
In addition to supply challenges, rising shipping and fertilizer costs linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions have further pushed up the overall cost of wheat imports into the country.
As a result, many bakeries across Nigeria may be forced to either increase the price of bread or adopt “shrinkflation,” reducing loaf sizes while maintaining current prices, in order to stay in business.
Although Nigeria sources wheat from multiple regions, including Europe and the Black Sea, those markets are also facing weather-related issues, limiting the availability of cheaper alternatives.
With global pressures mounting, the ripple effect is expected to hit Nigerian consumers directly, making bread and other wheat-based products more expensive in the coming months.
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