President Bola Tinubu has edged Peter Obi by 1,067 responses, representing 1.55% points in the Oxford-Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The Oxford-Metro poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.
Tinubu polled 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi received 23,402 responses, accounting for 33.86 per cent.
The figures placed Tinubu 1.55 percentage points ahead of Obi.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total participation.
The poll’s regional breakdown, however, showed a different picture from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, with Tinubu recording leads in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Obi and Atiku, meanwhile, recorded the highest number of responses in eight states each.
Tinubu’s strongest gains were recorded in parts of Northern Nigeria, where he led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, states won by Atiku in the 2023 presidential election.
He also led in Kano, where New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) presidential candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso won the 2023 presidential election.
At the geopolitical zone level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central, while Obi dominated the South-East and South-South. Atiku recorded his strongest showing in the North-East.
In the South-West, Tinubu polled 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of the zone’s total participation.
He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, accounting for 43.10 per cent, while his 6,370 responses in the North-Central represented 36.97 per cent of the zone’s participation.
Obi recorded his strongest regional performance in the South-East, where he secured 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent.
He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, accounting for 41.48 per cent of the region’s total.
Atiku dominated the North-East with 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of participation in the zone.
Despite Tinubu’s wider geographical spread, the national figures showed a close contest between the three leading candidates.
Some state-level results also recorded narrow margins. In Kogi, for instance, Tinubu received 39 responses, compared with 38 for Atiku and 33 for Obi, out of 110 responses recorded.
In the FCT, Tinubu polled 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving him a margin of 321 responses, while Atiku received 3,954.
Tinubu also led Obi in Rivers, where he received 975 responses against Obi’s 892, while Atiku polled 568.
Beyond the three leading contenders, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.
Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor six, and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu two.
A total of 638 participants selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet”, while 204 were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate”.
The poll also showed significant geographical concentration in participation, with Lagos and the FCT accounting for 54.44 per cent of all responses.
The final dataset contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic geopolitical-zone tallies.
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