Saad Al-kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, says oil price could rise to $150 per barrel in ‘two to three weeks’ if tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Al-kaabi made the forecast on Friday in an interview with the Financial Times.
On March 2, major container shipping lines suspended sailings through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal over escalating security risks in the Middle East after US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Hormuz — a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea — is said to be the only sea route linking the Gulf’s oil and gas producers to global markets, making it one of the most strategically important waterways in the world.
Speaking to Financial Times, Al-kaabi said energy markets could face severe disruptions if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
He projected that crude prices “could reach $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and other vessels remain unable to pass through the strategic waterway”.
Al-Kaabi also cautioned that natural gas prices could climb to $40 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu) if supply disruptions continue — almost four times higher than the levels recorded before the war.
He said if the conflict persists, energy producers across the Gulf region may be compelled to declare force majeure, potentially leading to the suspension of energy deliveries.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Al-kaabi said.
“If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
On March 2, QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company of Qatar, said it had halted the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to Iranian military attacks on its operating facilities.
Al-kaabi, addressing the shutdown, said the government and QatarEnergy are still assessing the extent of the damage to the facility.
“We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not clear yet how long it will take to repair,” he said.
Even if hostilities stopped immediately, the minister said it would take “weeks to months” for Qatar to restore normal export operations because of logistical disruptions.
Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company of Saudi Arabia, had also shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery following a fire sparked by debris from an Iranian drone attack at the facility.
Global supply disruptions have led to a surge in petrol pump prices in Nigeria.
On March 5, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited increased petrol price at its retail outlets to N933 per litre in Lagos and N960 per litre in Abuja.
The hike came after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its ex-gantry petrol price to N874 per litre, from N774 per litre.
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