Former Governor of Anambra State and 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has claimed that Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is on a constant decline.
Obi made the claim on his X (formerly Twitter) account @PeterObi on March 24 at 11:12 a.m., while comparing Nigeria’s debt profile with that of Bangladesh.
He stated that Nigeria is the third-largest borrower from the World Bank, with obligations of $18.7bn, while Bangladesh is the largest borrower at $23bn.
The former governor further argued that Bangladesh’s nominal GDP and GDP per capita grew significantly, from $195bn and $1,235 to between $450bn and $500 billion, and about $2,700 respectively. In contrast, he said Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined from about $490bn to $250bn, while GDP per capita fell from roughly $2,600–$2,700 to between $850 and $1,000. However, Obi did not cite sources for these figures.
As of the time of this fact-check, the post had received over 216,000 views, 9,500 likes, 605 comments, 4,200 reposts, and 150 bookmarks.
Understanding the metrics
Nominal GDP refers to the total value of all goods and services produced within a country over a specific period, measured at current market prices. It is commonly used to assess the size and overall economic strength of an economy.
GDP per capita, on the other hand, measures the average economic output per person by dividing total GDP by the population. It is often used as a proxy for living standards, although it does not account for income distribution.
Both indicators serve distinct analytical purposes. While nominal GDP reflects economic scale and global ranking, GDP per capita provides insight into average welfare and purchasing power. For a comprehensive assessment, particularly in developing economies like Nigeria, both metrics should be interpreted alongside factors such as inflation and inequality.
Findings
Data from the International Development Association (IDA) confirm that Nigeria ranks third among the borrowers from the institution, with outstanding obligations estimated at $18.7bn, while Bangladesh ranks first at approximately $23bn.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria’s nominal GDP stood between $487.43bn and $494.31bn in 2015 (approximately ₦94.14tn), with GDP per capita at $2,587.73.
Further checks using World Bank data indicate that Nigeria’s nominal GDP was about $252.26bn in 2024, while GDP per capita stood at $1,084.2.
For Bangladesh, World Bank data show nominal GDP rising from about $195bn in 2015 to roughly $450bn in 2024, with GDP per capita reaching approximately $2,593.4 in 2024. Additional data from Macrotrends indicate Bangladesh’s GDP per capita was about $1,224.39 in 2015.
Verdict: True
The broad figures cited by Obi for both Nigeria and Bangladesh are largely consistent with available data, with only minor variations that fall within reasonable statistical margins, (5% error and 95% confidence level).
Additional context
According to projections by the International Monetary Fund, Nigeria’s nominal GDP is expected to recover to between $334bn and $362bn by 2026, with GDP per capita projected at about $986. These projections, however, remain subject to prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
Credit: TheCable
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