Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.
This is according to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.
The growth rate represents an improvement from the 3.76 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, signalling a stronger year-end performance.
The latest data also shows improved contributions from agriculture, industry, and oil, while the services sector retained its position as the dominant driver of output.
What The Data Is Saying
The NBS report shows broad-based expansion across key sectors of the economy in Q4 2025.
Growth was supported by stronger performances in agriculture, industry, oil, and non-oil activities compared to the same period in 2024.
Real GDP grew by 4.07 per cent in Q4 2025, up from 3.76 per cent in Q4 2024, while full-year growth stood at 3.87 per cent compared to 3.38 per cent in 2024.
Agriculture expanded by 4.00 per cent, industry by 3.88 per cent, and services by 4.15 per cent, with services accounting for 55.92 per cent of total GDP in the quarter.
In nominal terms, GDP stood at N122.81 trillion, marking a 17.55 per cent increase from N104.48 trillion recorded in Q4 2024.
Average daily crude oil production was 1.58 million barrels per day, higher than 1.54 million barrels per day in Q4 2024 but below 1.64 million barrels per day in Q3 2025.
Overall, the figures indicate a steady improvement in economic performance compared to the previous year, despite mixed quarter-on-quarter outcomes.
More Insights
The oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 6.79 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025, reflecting a 4.71 percentage point increase from the 2.08 per cent posted in Q4 2024. It also improved by 0.95 percentage points compared to Q3 2025.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, the oil sector contracted by 6.30 per cent in Q4 2025.
For the full year, oil sector growth stood at 8.50 per cent, higher than the 5.54 per cent recorded in 2024.
The oil sector contributed 2.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 2025, compared to 2.80 per cent in Q4 2024 and 3.44 per cent in Q3 2025.
Overall, the sector accounted for 3.53 per cent of GDP in 2025, slightly higher than 3.38 per cent in 2024.
The non-oil sector continued to anchor the economy, growing by 3.99 per cent in real terms in Q4 2025, compared to 3.80 per cent in Q4 2024 and 3.91 per cent in Q3 2025. Growth was driven by crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade, financial institutions, construction, road transport, and food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing.
In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 97.13 per cent to GDP in Q4 2025 and 96.47 per cent for the full year, underscoring its dominant role in economic activity.
What You Should Know
Global institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s growth trajectory following the latest GDP data. Updated forecasts suggest sustained expansion over the medium term.
The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026.
The World Bank has maintained its 4.4 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027.
The World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.4 per cent from 3.7 per cent projected in June 2025.
These projections signal confidence in Nigeria’s medium-term prospects, even as structural and macroeconomic challenges remain.
Credit: Nairametrics
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