The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, is nearing N1,500 per litre in the nation’s capital as rising global crude oil prices and higher logistics costs continue to put pressure on the downstream petroleum market.
The latest development followed an N85 per litre increase in the gantry price of petrol by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, from N1,265 to N1,350, effective September 12, 2026.
The increase, which represents a 6.7 per cent rise, has triggered fresh adjustments by filling stations in the Federal Capital Territory, with some outlets already selling petrol above N1,400 per litre.
Checks in Abuja showed that MRS filling stations increased their pump price from N1,350 to N1,395 per litre, while NIPCO outlets raised theirs to N1,430 per litre. Mobil outlets also increased their price to N1,400 per litre.
The latest development has heightened concerns that petrol could hit N1,500 per litre in Abuja and other major cities if crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel and transportation and distribution costs continue to rise.
Brent crude, the global benchmark for Nigeria’s oil, was trading above $100 per barrel, with prices reaching about $108 per barrel amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.
An industry expert, Olatide Jeremiah, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said the increase in petrol prices reflected developments in the international oil market, warning that pump prices could rise further if the crisis persists.
“Oil price and freight rate spikes are universal challenges for refineries, except where the Federal Government intervenes. Gantry and pump prices will ultimately be determined by the impact of the Middle East crisis.
“The upward review of petrol prices to N1,350 per litre by the Dangote Refinery is expected as oil prices approach $110 per barrel. Pump prices could hit N1,500 per litre in major cities across Nigeria if the crisis persists,” he said.
The impact of the latest increase is expected to be more pronounced in Abuja and northern cities because of their distance from coastal supply centres and the additional cost of transporting petroleum products over long distances.
Unlike Lagos, Port Harcourt and Warri, which have relatively close access to refineries, terminals and other supply points, Abuja and other inland markets rely heavily on trucking to move products from coastal areas. The additional freight, handling and distribution costs are subsequently reflected in the pump price paid by consumers.
The latest Energy Bulletin by the Industry Competency Centre, Lagos, showed that the seven-day average domestic petrol price stood at N1,308.33 per litre, while diesel averaged N1,855.97 per litre.
The bulletin also put the seven-day average Brent crude price at $98.74 per barrel and Bonny Light at $104.65, while the seven-day average exchange rate stood at N1,323.12 to the dollar.
It further showed that coastal ex-depot petrol prices ranged between N1,265.50 and N1,285 per litre, indicating that inland markets would continue to bear additional costs arising from transportation and distribution.
Industry estimates suggest that petrol could sell for between N1,400 and N1,500 per litre in Abuja, with prices potentially exceeding N1,500 at some filling stations depending on supply costs and marketers’ margins.
In northern cities such as Kano, Kaduna and Jos, petrol prices could rise further, potentially reaching between N1,450 and N1,600 per litre depending on product availability, transportation costs and supply routes.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said marketers had been forced to review their pump prices following successive adjustments by Dangote Refinery.
According to him, the frequent changes were creating uncertainty for marketers and consumers because the cost of replacing products could change within a short period.
The latest increase represents the fourth upward adjustment to Dangote Refinery’s petrol gantry price since August 21.
The refinery had increased the price from N1,165 to N1,185 per litre on August 21, from N1,185 to N1,200 on August 26, and from N1,200 to N1,265 on August 29. With the latest adjustment to N1,350, the gantry price has risen by N185, or about 15.9 per cent, in 22 days.
In a memo to customers announcing the latest adjustment, the refinery directed customers with existing loading arrangements to return their Automated Truck Certificates (ATCs) for repricing before loading could resume.
It said the revised gantry and coastal prices took effect from September 12, adding that new volume contracts would be issued for immediate loading.
The latest price increase has also raised concerns over its potential impact on inflation, transportation and the prices of essential commodities.
An economist and development expert, Aliyu Ilias, said the increase in petrol prices could worsen inflation and deepen economic hardship for Nigerians.
“I think there should be a way of absorbing these costs. If you do not absorb them, they will show up in our next inflation figures and economic analysis.
“The more prices increase, the more the cost of producing goods, especially food, will rise because everything is affected by transportation costs. This kind of change is not good for the economy at all, and people are going to face more hardship as a result,” he said.
A petrol attendant at an MRS filling station in Abuja, who pleaded anonymity, said motorists could face another increase once new supplies arrive.
“We are currently selling our old stock at N1,395 per litre, but from tomorrow, once the new stock arrives, the price will be higher,” she said.
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