Tesla Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk has claimed that deaths across Africa declined after the United States slashed foreign aid funding, arguing that ending some aid programmes reduced instability across the continent.
Musk made the claim on Tuesday while responding to criticism of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), whose cost-cutting measures, which he has backed, led to major reductions in funding for the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
According to Refugees International, US humanitarian funding dropped from $14 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025. The organisation described the shutdown of USAID as the “most prominent manifestation” of a wider decline in global humanitarian assistance.
The Center for Global Development also found that USAID spending fell by about 58 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Despite the reductions, health experts and humanitarian organisations have cautioned that the funding cuts could trigger serious humanitarian consequences.
A study published in The Lancet in July 2025 estimated that the aid reductions could contribute to more than 14 million deaths worldwide by 2030, including over 4.5 million children.
In the same vein, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, citing projections by the Center for Global Development, wrote last year that more than 1.6 million people could die within a year without US support for HIV prevention and treatment.
However, Musk pointed to mortality data from several African countries in a post on X, saying the figures did not show any noticeable increase in deaths after the funding cuts.
“Deaths in Africa DECREASED after USAID funding was cut, because they’re no longer able to push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes!” he wrote, quoting an analysis that highlighted South African all-cause death statistics.
The analysis included a graph tracking weekly deaths in South Africa between January 2023 and May 2026, covering the period following the USAID/PEPFAR funding cuts.
It showed that observed excess deaths remained close to zero and were below projected levels recorded before the reductions.
The accompanying analysis also referenced previous research questioning the overall health benefits of foreign aid, including a 2019 study that found little statistical evidence linking aid levels to improvements in life expectancy or lower mortality rates in developing countries.
Musk has consistently defended the funding cuts, maintaining that they were aimed at reducing waste, corruption and the misuse of taxpayer funds for political objectives instead of humanitarian purposes.
He further argued that previous USAID activities in parts of Africa encouraged violent revolutions intended to install leftist governments and that ending the funding removed a source of conflict.
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