American military officials say President Donald Trump’s directive for the Pentagon to prepare possible military action in Nigeria is unlikely to end the country’s deeply rooted insurgency.
Despite Trump’s call to protect Christians from attacks by Islamic militants, officials told the New York Times that only a full-scale Iraq- or Afghanistan-style campaign could meaningfully change the situation.
Limited strikes or short-term missions, they argue, would have minimal long-term impact on Boko Haram and other groups that have terrorized both Christians and Muslims for nearly two decades.
Following Trump’s online announcement, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) to produce fresh plans. The command submitted three options: light, medium, and heavy. The light option involves partner-enabled operations, with U.S. personnel supporting Nigerian forces to target militants in the north.
Officials caution, however, that the violence is entangled with land disputes, corruption, ethnic tensions, and long-standing farmer–herder conflicts—issues foreign forces cannot easily fix.
The heavy option, which would deploy an aircraft carrier strike group to the Gulf of Guinea to conduct deep strikes into northern Nigeria, is considered highly unrealistic. U.S. carriers are already committed to operations in the Pacific, Middle East, and Caribbean, leaving little strategic room for such a deployment.
Military officials stressed that launching a major intervention in Nigeria was not viewed as a 2025 priority before Trump’s sudden directive.
Experts warn that even large-scale airstr+kes would produce shock and awe without dismantling insurgent networks embedded in remote communities. One retired general compared the idea to “pounding a pillow.”
While Nigeria says it welcomes assistance against Islamist militants, it has insisted that any U.S. action must respect its sovereignty, further complicating the already uncertain prospects of a successful American intervention.
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